Private Housing – Overview
Project-starts, main contract awards and detailed planning approvals all decreased on the preceding three months and previous year.
Adding up to £5,019 million, private housing work starting on-site during the three months to March decreased 40% against the preceding three months and 58% against previous year. Underlying (less than £100 million in value) project-starts, totalling £4,449 million, performed poorly having decreased 39% against the preceding three-month period on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis to stand 50% down on a year ago. Major (£100 million or more) project-starts totalled £570 million a 82% decrease against the preceding three months to stand 81% down on the previous year.
Private housing contract awards totalled £10,898 million during the three months to March, a 9% fall compared with the preceding three months and a 22% decline against the previous year. Underlying contract awards, at £9,748 million, fell 6% (SA) against the preceding three months to stand 14% down on a year ago. Major project contract awards increased 7% during the three-month period but remained 57% down on the previous year.
Private housing detailed planning approvals decreased 6% during the three months to March and previous year to total £10,663 million. Major project detailed planning approvals were strong, having increased 27% against the preceding three months and 73% compared with a year ago to total £2,950 million. Underlying project approvals, at £7,712 million were weak having declined 20% against the preceding three months (SA) and previous year.
Private Housing – Types of Projects Started
Housing work commencing on-site added up to £3,463 million during the three months to March, 53% decline compared with the previous year. The segment accounted for 69% of project-starts during the period.
Apartments accounted for a quarter of the sector, with the value of work starting on-site adding up to £1,244 million. The segment experienced a 71% fall compared with a year ago.
Sheltered housing work starting on-site totalled £311 million, growth of 48% against the previous year to account for 6% of the private housing sector.
Regional Analysis – Project-Starts
London accounted for the greatest proportion of private housing work starting on-site during the three months to March (19%) with the value adding up to £952 million. This was despite the value falling by 71% compared with the previous year. The North West at £841 million was the second most active sector, accounting for 17% of the total. The region followed a similar trend to the capital, declining 31% against 2022 levels.
The South West was another active region to experience a decrease against the previous year. Totalling £561 million, the South West experienced a decrease of 18% against 2022 levels to account for 11% of the total value. No region experienced a growth in project-starts during the period.
Private Housing Project-Starts during the three months to March
|
Region |
Value of Project-Starts (£m) |
Change against previous year |
Change against two years ago |
Share of project-starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
London |
952 |
-71% |
-50% |
19% |
|
North West |
841 |
-31% |
-23% |
17% |
|
South West |
561 |
-18% |
-37% |
11% |
|
South East |
503 |
-71% |
-58% |
10% |
|
East of England |
377 |
-57% |
-62% |
8% |
|
East Midlands |
343 |
-54% |
-56% |
7% |
|
West Midlands |
342 |
-71% |
-74% |
7% |
|
Wales |
338 |
59% |
60% |
7% |
|
Yorkshire & the Humber |
321 |
-48% |
-66% |
6% |
|
North East |
172 |
-70% |
-44% |
3% |
|
Scotland |
142 |
-78% |
-75% |
3% |
|
Northern Ireland |
126 |
-41% |
-42% |
3% |
|
UK |
5,019 |
-58% |
-52% |
100% |
Regional Analysis – Detailed Planning Approvals
Yorkshire & the Humber accounted for the greatest proportion of detailed planning approvals (16%), with the value adding up to £1,655 million during the three months to March. Yorkshire experienced the sharpest growth of any region during the three months to March, with the value of planning approvals increasing 168% against 2022 levels. The South East, accounting for 13% of the sector, also experienced a relatively strong period with approvals rising 17% against the previous year to total £1,392 million. The North West accounted for 12% of the total value, having experienced 13% growth against the previous year to total £1,228 million.
London was the second most active region, accounting for 15% of the total value. Despite this, the value of planning approvals fell 39% against the previous year to total £1,585 million. The East Midlands, at £719 million experienced the sharpest decrease of any region (-45%) to account for 7% of the total value.
Private housing Detailed Planning Approvals during the three months to March
|
Region |
Value of project-approvals (£m) |
Change against previous year |
Change against two years ago |
Share of project-approvals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Yorkshire & the Humber |
1,655 |
168% |
113% |
16% |
|
London |
1,585 |
-39% |
-40% |
15% |
|
South East |
1,392 |
17% |
-13% |
13% |
|
North West |
1,228 |
13% |
-37% |
12% |
|
Scotland |
976 |
4% |
40% |
9% |
|
East of England |
849 |
-33% |
-39% |
8% |
|
South West |
822 |
0% |
-3% |
8% |
|
East Midlands |
719 |
-45% |
-42% |
7% |
|
West Midlands |
686 |
-8% |
-48% |
6% |
|
North East |
331 |
-26% |
-38% |
3% |
|
Northern Ireland |
285 |
81% |
35% |
3% |
|
Wales |
135 |
-44% |
-25% |
1% |
|
UK |
10,663 |
-6% |
-20% |
100% |
Forecast Construction-Starts for Private Housing
|
Underlying project-starts (£ million) |
Change on previous year |
|
|---|---|---|
|
Quarter 1, 2021 |
9,448 |
29% |
|
Quarter 2, 2021 |
6,536 |
106% |
|
Quarter 3, 2021 |
6,709 |
24% |
|
Quarter 4, 2021 |
5,500 |
-7% |
|
Quarter 1, 2022 |
8,956 |
-5% |
|
Quarter 2, 2022 |
9,682 |
48% |
|
Quarter 3, 2022 |
7,390 |
10% |
|
Quarter 4, 2022 |
5,131 |
-7% |
|
Quarter 1, 2023 p |
4,449 |
-50% |
|
Quarter 2, 2023 f |
6,427 |
-34% |
|
Quarter 3, 2023 f |
6,709 |
-9% |
|
Quarter 4, 2023 f |
6,422 |
25% |
|
Quarter 1, 2024 f |
7,780 |
75% |
|
Quarter 2, 2024 f |
7,203 |
12% |
|
Quarter 3, 2024 f |
7,589 |
13% |
|
Quarter 4, 2024 f |
7,325 |
14% |
Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million. Forecast updated in April 2023 p – provisional, f – forecast.
Source: Glenigan