Private Housing

 

Private Housing – Overview

Project-starts, main contract awards and detailed planning approvals all decreased on the preceding three months and previous year.

Adding up to £5,019 million, private housing work starting on-site during the three months to March decreased 40% against the preceding three months and 58% against previous year. Underlying (less than £100 million in value) project-starts, totalling £4,449 million, performed poorly having decreased 39% against the preceding three-month period on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis to stand 50% down on a year ago. Major (£100 million or more) project-starts totalled £570 million a 82% decrease against the preceding three months to stand 81% down on the previous year.

Private housing contract awards totalled £10,898 million during the three months to March, a 9% fall compared with the preceding three months and a 22% decline against the previous year. Underlying contract awards, at £9,748 million, fell 6% (SA) against the preceding three months to stand 14% down on a year ago. Major project contract awards increased 7% during the three-month period but remained 57% down on the previous year.

Private housing detailed planning approvals decreased 6% during the three months to March and previous year to total £10,663 million. Major project detailed planning approvals were strong, having increased 27% against the preceding three months and 73% compared with a year ago to total £2,950 million. Underlying project approvals, at £7,712 million were weak having declined 20% against the preceding three months (SA) and previous year.

 

Private Housing – Types of Projects Started

Housing work commencing on-site added up to £3,463 million during the three months to March, 53% decline compared with the previous year. The segment accounted for 69% of project-starts during the period.

Apartments accounted for a quarter of the sector, with the value of work starting on-site adding up to £1,244 million. The segment experienced a 71% fall compared with a year ago.

Sheltered housing work starting on-site totalled £311 million, growth of 48% against the previous year to account for 6% of the private housing sector.

 

Regional Analysis – Project-Starts

London accounted for the greatest proportion of private housing work starting on-site during the three months to March (19%) with the value adding up to £952 million. This was despite the value falling by 71% compared with the previous year. The North West at £841 million was the second most active sector, accounting for 17% of the total. The region followed a similar trend to the capital, declining 31% against 2022 levels.

The South West was another active region to experience a decrease against the previous year. Totalling £561 million, the South West experienced a decrease of 18% against 2022 levels to account for 11% of the total value. No region experienced a growth in project-starts during the period.

Private Housing Project-Starts during the three months to March

 

Region

Value of Project-Starts (£m)

Change against previous year

Change against two years ago

Share of project-starts

 London

 952

-71%

-50%

19%

 North West

 841

-31%

-23%

17%

 South West

 561

-18%

-37%

11%

 South East

 503

-71%

-58%

10%

 East of England

 377

-57%

-62%

8%

 East Midlands

 343

-54%

-56%

7%

 West Midlands

 342

-71%

-74%

7%

 Wales

 338

59%

60%

7%

 Yorkshire & the Humber

 321

-48%

-66%

6%

 North East

 172

-70%

-44%

3%

 Scotland

 142

-78%

-75%

3%

 Northern Ireland

 126

-41%

-42%

3%

 UK

 5,019

-58%

-52%

100%

 

 Regional Analysis – Detailed Planning Approvals

 

Yorkshire & the Humber accounted for the greatest proportion of detailed planning approvals (16%), with the value adding up to £1,655 million during the three months to March. Yorkshire experienced the sharpest growth of any region during the three months to March, with the value of planning approvals increasing 168% against 2022 levels. The South East, accounting for 13% of the sector, also experienced a relatively strong period with approvals rising 17% against the previous year to total £1,392 million. The North West accounted for 12% of the total value, having experienced 13% growth against the previous year to total £1,228 million.

London was the second most active region, accounting for 15% of the total value. Despite this, the value of planning approvals fell 39% against the previous year to total £1,585 million.  The East Midlands, at £719 million experienced the sharpest decrease of any region (-45%) to account for 7% of the total value.

 

Private housing Detailed Planning Approvals during the three months to March

 

Region

Value of project-approvals (£m)

Change against previous year

Change against two years ago

Share of project-approvals

 Yorkshire & the Humber

 1,655

168%

113%

16%

 London

 1,585

-39%

-40%

15%

 South East

 1,392

17%

-13%

13%

 North West

 1,228

13%

-37%

12%

 Scotland

 976

4%

40%

9%

 East of England

 849

-33%

-39%

8%

 South West

 822

0%

-3%

8%

 East Midlands

 719

-45%

-42%

7%

 West Midlands

 686

-8%

-48%

6%

 North East

 331

-26%

-38%

3%

 Northern Ireland

 285

81%

35%

3%

 Wales

 135

-44%

-25%

1%

 UK

 10,663

-6%

-20%

100%

 

Forecast Construction-Starts for Private Housing

 

 

Underlying project-starts (£ million)

Change on previous year

Quarter 1, 2021

9,448

29%

Quarter 2, 2021

6,536

106%

Quarter 3, 2021

6,709

24%

Quarter 4, 2021

5,500

-7%

Quarter 1, 2022

8,956

-5%

Quarter 2, 2022

9,682

48%

Quarter 3, 2022

7,390

10%

Quarter 4, 2022

5,131

-7%

Quarter 1, 2023 p

4,449

-50%

Quarter 2, 2023 f

6,427

-34%

Quarter 3, 2023 f

6,709

-9%

Quarter 4, 2023 f

6,422

25%

Quarter 1, 2024 f

7,780

75%

Quarter 2, 2024 f

7,203

12%

Quarter 3, 2024 f

7,589

13%

Quarter 4, 2024 f

7,325

14%

Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million.  Forecast updated in April 2023 p – provisional, f – forecast.
Source: Glenigan

 

 


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