Scotland

Overview

Project starts and main contract awards weakened against the previous year. On a more positive note, detailed planning approvals performed relatively strongly against 2022 levels, providing a boost to the development pipeline.

Totalling £856m, work starting on-site in Scotland decreased 65 per cent during the three months to March to remain 52 per cent lower than a year ago. Underlying project-starts (less than £100m in value) performed poorly, having decreased 48 per cent against the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis as well as 56 per cent compared with a year earlier. Major projects (£100m or more) totalled £150m during the period, an 89 per cent decrease against the preceding quarter to stand 25 per cent down on the previous year.

Main contract awards in Scotland added up to £1.636bn, a 19 per cent decline compared with the preceding three months and 38 per cent lower than a year ago. Underlying contract awards decreased 32 per cent (SA) against the preceding three months and 28 per cent against the previous year. Major contract awards totalled £108m during the period, a 7 per cent increase on the preceding quarter to stand 79 per cent down on the previous year.

Adding up to £2.356bn, detailed planning approvals in Scotland increased 34 per cent against the preceding three months to stand 13 per cent up against the previous year. Underlying project approvals increased 11 per cent (SA) against the preceding three months but stood 10 per cent down compared with a year ago. In contrast, major approvals experienced a triple-digit increase against both the preceding quarter (+273 per cent) and previous year (+150 per cent) to total £750m.

Sector Analysis – Project-Starts

Infrastructure was the most active sector in Scotland for project-starts during the three months to March, accounting for 24 per cent of the total value. The sector experienced the sharpest growth of any, with the value of project starts increasing 108 per cent against the previous year. Infrastructure was boosted by the commencement of the £150m rail upgrade works in Strathclyde (Project ID: 23069946).  Retail was another triple-digit growth area, here the value of project-starts increased 103 per cent against the previous year to total £49m, a 6 per cent share of the total value.

Private housing was the second most active sector in Scotland for project-starts during the three months to March, accounting for 17 per cent of the total value. Despite this, the sector experienced a 78 per cent decrease against the previous year to total £142m. Utilities at £109m also experienced a poor period, the value of project-starts decreased 67 per cent against 2022 levels to account for 13 per cent of the total value.

Value of Project-Starts in Scotland during the three months to March 2023 by Sector

Sector Analysis – Detailed Planning Approvals

Unsurprisingly, private housing accounted for the greatest proportion of detailed planning approvals (41 per cent) during the three months to March with the value adding up to £976m. Private housing approvals increased 4 per cent compared with the previous year. Private housing consents in Scotland included the £200m College Street Good Yard development in Glasgow (Project ID: 14334508). Utilities experienced a strong period, with the value of project approvals increasing 243 per cent against 2022 levels to total £205m, a 9 per cent share of the total value.

Industrial at £387m, was the second most active sector in Scotland. The sector experienced a 213 per cent increase on 2022 levels to account for 16 per cent of the total value. Offices planning approvals also experienced a triple-digit increase (+479 per cent) compared with last year’s levels, adding up to £180m, accounting for an 8 per cent share of the total value.

Value of Project-Approvals in Scotland during the three months to March 2023 by Sector

Forecast Construction-Starts for Scotland

Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million.  Forecast updated in April 2023 p – provisional, f – forecast.
Source: Glenigan