East of England

East of England – Overview

Underlying project-starts, main contract awards and detailed planning approvals all weakened during Q4 2022. Major projects provided a boost to main contract awards and detailed planning approvals.

Totalling £1.36bn underlying (less than £100m in value) work starting on-site during Q4 2022 in the East of England fell 1 per cent against the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis as well as 4 per cent against the previous year. No major (£100m or more) projects commenced on-site during the quarter, remaining unchanged on the previous year but differing from the preceding quarter. The total value of project-starts fell 37 per cent against the preceding quarter.

Adding up to £2.3bn, main contract awards climbed 2 per cent against the preceding quarter. Despite this, the value slipped back 1 per cent against the previous year. Major project contract awards, totalling £479m, prevented a further decline having been up on the preceding quarter and previous year when no major projects reached the contract awarded stage. In contrast, underlying contract awards fell 19 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter and 21 per cent against the previous year to total £1.84bn.

Detailed planning approvals, at £3.39bn, fell 22 per cent during Q4 2022 but remained 33 per cent higher than a year ago. Despite falling 55 per cent against the preceding quarter, major project approvals were strong having increased 789 per cent against the previous year to total £1.26bn. Underlying approvals added up to £2.12bn, a 21 per cent (SA) fall against the preceding quarter to stand 11 per cent down on a year ago.

Sector Analysis – Project-Starts

Private housing accounted for the greatest proportion (45 per cent) of project-starts during Q4 2022, despite the value falling 14 per cent against the previous year. Work starting on-site totalled £612 million and included a £55m, 350-unit development in Elsenham (Project ID: 21502499). Industrial project-starts, adding up to £119 million, fell 47 per cent compared with a year ago to account for 9 per cent of the region.

In contrast, the public sectors performed well. Education also accounted for 9 per cent of the region but experienced 106 per cent growth compared with the previous year to total £118m. Growth was due to the commencement of several schemes. Health project-starts also performed well, increasing 28 per cent against the previous year to total £180m. The sector accounted for the second-greatest proportion (13 per cent) of project-starts, being boosted by a £40m research development centre in Cambridge (Project ID: 19119588). Infrastructure (+98 per cent), hotel & leisure (+44 per cent) and retail (+68 per cent) also experienced growth against the previous year.

Value of Project-Starts in the East of England during Q4 2022 by Sector

Sector Analysis – Detailed Planning Approvals

Similarly to project-starts, private housing accounted for almost half (47 per cent) of the total value of detailed planning approvals in the region during Q4 2022. Unlike project-starts however, the sector experienced growth (+43 per cent) in terms of approvals compared with the previous year to total £1.6bn.  Consents included a £160m, 373-unit development in Cambridge (Project ID: 21420922). Utilities also performed well, with approvals advancing 408 per cent compared with 2021 levels to total £413m. The sector accounted for 12 per cent of the total value of approvals, being boosted by a £400m water pipeline between Bexwell and Bury St Edmunds (Project ID: 20360810).

Industrial also accounted for 12 per cent of the region’s approvals, but unlike utilities the sector experienced a fall (-4 per cent) compared with the previous year. Industrial approvals added up to £422m and included a £124m warehouse in Stowmarket (Project ID: 22277749). Similarly, office approvals fell 2 per cent against the previous year to total £242m. The only other sectors that experienced falls compared with a year ago were hotel & leisure (-60 per cent) and social housing (-23 per cent).

Value of project approvals in the East of England during Q4 2022 by sector

Forecast Construction-Starts for the East of England

Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million.  Forecast updated in October 2022 p – provisional, f – forecast.
Source: Glenigan