Project starts steady
- Starts in the three months to February were 7% down on a year ago, but were little changed on the preceding three months.
- Residential starts were 13% lower due to a weakening in both private and social housing projects.
- Non-residential project starts were 4% lower than during the three months to February 2017 as a declines in office, health and education projects outweighed increases retail and hotel & leisure work.
- Civil engineering was 5% higher than a year ago, lifted by a marked improvement in utilities work.
The value of work starting on site in the three months to February was 7% down on the same period a year earlier, according to the latest Glenigan Index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, starts were 1% up on the three months to November.
“Strikingly, the private housing and industrial sectors, which have been recent areas of support have faltered over the last three months, but this weakness has been offset by a revival elsewhere – in retail, hotel & leisure and utilities work.
“The recent improvement in the private housing sector has lost momentum. Private residential starts during the three months to February were 9% lower than during the same period a year ago. In addition the smaller social housing sector has continued to fall away, being 8% down on September to November on a seasonally adjusted basis and 23% lower than a year ago.
“Overall non-residential projects were 4% lower than a year ago, but 17% up against the three months to November on a seasonally adjusted basis. The year on year decline is due to a sharp drop in office project starts and weakness in public sector funded areas such as health and education projects. The recent improvement in the industrial sector has also petered with projects starts were 5% lower than a year ago. However, these declines have been partially offset by a strengthening in the retail and hotel & leisure sectors
“Civil engineering starts during the three months to February were 5% up on a year ago. This encouraging upturn in civils work follows a 20% decline in the value of underlying starts on 2017. The rise was driven by a recovery in utilities project starts which were 20% up on a year ago.
Regionally the North West of England and Yorkshire & the Humber remain growth areas with the value of underlying construction starts 44% and 59% higher respectively during the three months to February than a year ago. There was also modest growth in starts in Scotland, the South West and the West Midlands. In contrast the value of project starts fell back sharply in the East of England, London, the North East, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Glenigan Indices (underlying* projects up to £100 million)
|
|
Glenigan Index |
Residential |
Non-residential |
Civil engineering |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
|
Feb-17 |
118.3 |
3% |
151 |
11% |
106 |
10% |
69 |
-47% |
|
Mar-17 |
133.0 |
-1% |
160 |
5% |
120 |
-1% |
109 |
-23% |
|
Apr-17 |
114.5 |
-9% |
143 |
10% |
98 |
-18% |
97 |
-31% |
|
May-17 |
125.3 |
-5% |
148 |
5% |
114 |
-10% |
104 |
-18% |
|
Jun-17 |
128.6 |
-5% |
165 |
13% |
113 |
-15% |
84 |
-29% |
|
Jul-17 |
132.1 |
-3% |
170 |
8% |
117 |
-7% |
81 |
-31% |
|
Aug-17 |
127.9 |
-10% |
174 |
-1% |
102 |
-15% |
96 |
-24% |
|
Sep-17 |
133.3 |
-6% |
178 |
-4% |
106 |
-8% |
112 |
-9% |
|
Oct-17 |
132.7 |
-7% |
182 |
-1% |
103 |
-11% |
110 |
-16% |
|
Nov-17 |
130.0 |
1% |
172 |
11% |
106 |
-7% |
106 |
-7% |
|
Dec-17 |
111.4 |
5% |
147 |
16% |
95 |
-1% |
75 |
-18% |
|
Jan-18 |
118.5 |
0% |
145 |
8% |
106 |
-8% |
90 |
9% |
|
Feb-18 |
109.4 |
-7% |
131 |
-13% |
103 |
-4% |
73 |
5% |
Note: *, underlying projects are valued over £250,000 and under £100 million
r – Revised, p – Provisional. Percentage change is against the same period of previous year.
Source: Glenigan
Note on the statistics
The Glenigan Index of project starts provides a leading indicator of construction activity in the UK. It is based on data collected about every construction project which started on site during the previous three-month period. The Index covers civil engineering and non-residential projects over £250,000 and residential projects for 10 or more units. It excludes any project over £100 million.