Fewer project starts during second quarter
- Starts in the three months to June were 21% down on a year ago and were 8% lower than during the on the preceding three months.
- Residential starts were 25% lower than a year ago with a weakening in both private and social housing projects.
- Non-residential project starts were 16% lower than during the second quarter of 2017 due to a marked weakening in industrial and commercial project starts.
- Civil engineering was 20% lower than a year ago due to declines in both infrastructure and utilities work.
The value of work starting on site in the three months to June was 21% lower than a year ago, according to the latest Glenigan Index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, starts fell by 8% against the three months to March.
Disappointingly, the progressive decline in the value of underlying[1] starts in recent months continued during June. The Index reveals a general decline in project starts during the last three months, most notably in housing, industrial, commercial and civil engineering projects. However, against this downward trend project starts in the education, health and hotel & leisure were little changed or up on a year ago.
Private residential starts during the three months to June were 18% down on the same period a year ago, although starts were 9% up on the preceding three months on a seasonally adjusted basis. Social housing starts fell away sharply, being 26% down on the first quarter of the year on a seasonally adjusted basis and 42% lower than a year ago.
Overall non-residential projects were 16% lower than a year ago and 14% down against the three months to March on a seasonally adjusted basis. Sharp declines in office, retail and education starts contributed to the decline against the preceding three months. Year on year double digit declines in industrial, retail, office and community & amenity projects overshadowed 22% rise in health project starts.
Civil engineering starts during the three months to June were 20% down on a year ago, with a 41% drop in the value of underlying infrastructure starts partially offset by a 25% rise in utilities work.”
The overall drop in starts was widely felt across the country, with Northern Ireland the only part of the UK to see a small rise in the value of project starts. Regionally, London and Yorkshire & the Humber recorded the steepest falls, with the value of starts 56% and 32% lower than a year ago. The East of England, South West and Scotland also saw double digit falls of 17%, 17% and 15% respectively.
[1] See notes for definition of underlying starts
Glenigan Indices (underlying* projects up to £100 million)
|
|
Glenigan Index |
Residential |
Non-residential |
Civil engineering |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
|
Jun-17 |
151.8 |
-8% |
205 |
15% |
123 |
-16% |
115 |
-43% |
|
Jul-17 |
155.8 |
-4% |
212 |
9% |
129 |
-6% |
100 |
-40% |
|
Aug-17 |
153.8 |
-7% |
216 |
0% |
122 |
-7% |
99 |
-35% |
|
Sep-17 |
150.7 |
-7% |
199 |
-10% |
124 |
-3% |
118 |
-13% |
|
Oct-17 |
140.9 |
-14% |
193 |
-11% |
111 |
-12% |
109 |
-28% |
|
Nov-17 |
137.5 |
-14% |
184 |
-11% |
110 |
-16% |
110 |
-24% |
|
Dec-17 |
122.7 |
-13% |
166 |
-9% |
101 |
-12% |
84 |
-36% |
|
Jan-17 |
143.2 |
-13% |
185 |
-11% |
123 |
-14% |
105 |
-22% |
|
Feb-18 |
138.8 |
-10% |
181 |
-11% |
119 |
-6% |
94 |
-22% |
|
Mar-18 |
151.3 |
-14% |
188 |
-15% |
129 |
-12% |
134 |
-20% |
|
Apr-18 |
131.6 |
-10% |
167 |
-8% |
113 |
-6% |
104 |
-32% |
|
May-18 |
127.7 |
-17% |
155 |
-15% |
111 |
-17% |
115 |
-26% |
|
Jun-18 |
120.2 |
-21% |
154 |
-25% |
103 |
-16% |
92 |
-20% |
Note: *, underlying projects are valued over £250,000 and under £100 million