Steady performance in first quarter of 2018
• Starts in the three months to March were unchanged on a year ago, but 5% down on the preceding three months.
• Residential starts were 5% higher than a year ago due to a rise in both private and social housing projects.
• Non-residential project starts were 1% higher than during the three months to March 2017 as a declines in office, hotel & leisure and health were largely offset by increases industrial, retail and education projects.
• Civil engineering was 18% lower than a year ago due to declines in both infrastructure and utilities work.
The value of work starting on site in the three months to March was unchanged on a year ago, according to the latest Glenigan Index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, starts were 5% lower than during the three months to December.
Whilst the Glenigan Index has recorded a softening in the value of underlying starts against the final quarter of 2017 on a seasonally adjusted basis, the starts were unchanged on a year ago.
The upturn in private housing starts seen in the final quarter of 2017 has petered out. Private residential starts during the three months to March were 17% down on the final quarter of 2017 on a seasonally adjusted basis, although stars were still 4% ahead of the same period a year ago. In addition the smaller social housing sector also fell away, being 18% down on October to December on a seasonally adjusted basis, but was 9% up on a year ago.
Overall non-residential projects were 1% higher than a year ago, but down by 16% against the three months to December on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline against the final three months of 2017 is largely due to a sharp retrenchment in hotel & leisure sector starts, which on a seasonally adjusted basis were 55% down on a strong performance in the final quarter of 2017. Year on year a weakening in hotel & leisure, office and health projects was outweighed by growth in industrial, retail and educations project starts.
Civil engineering starts during the three months to March were 18% up on a year ago. The fall was due to declines in both infrastructure and utilities work.
Regionally the North West of England and Yorkshire & the Humber remain the strongest growth areas with the value of underlying construction starts 55% and 47% higher respectively during the three months to March than a year ago. There was also firm growth in starts in the East Midland (+34%), West Midlands (+19%) and North East (+18%). In contrast the value of project starts fell back sharply in the East of England, London, South West, Wales and Northern Ireland.
Glenigan Indices (underlying* projects up to £100 million)
|
|
Glenigan Index |
Residential |
Non-residential |
Civil engineering |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
Index |
% Change |
|
Mar-17 |
119.9 |
-3% |
139 |
0% |
109 |
-1% |
106 |
-23% |
|
Apr-17 |
102.7 |
-12% |
124 |
3% |
89 |
-19% |
95 |
-29% |
|
May-17 |
118.2 |
-4% |
138 |
6% |
107 |
-10% |
104 |
-13% |
|
Jun-17 |
123.0 |
-3% |
158 |
17% |
107 |
-13% |
84 |
-27% |
|
Jul-17 |
123.8 |
-5% |
159 |
7% |
109 |
-9% |
78 |
-34% |
|
Aug-17 |
119.6 |
-12% |
164 |
-2% |
95 |
-18% |
92 |
-27% |
|
Sep-17 |
124.7 |
-9% |
164 |
-8% |
101 |
-9% |
108 |
-12% |
|
Oct-17 |
127.2 |
-7% |
173 |
-2% |
99 |
-10% |
109 |
-16% |
|
Nov-17 |
129.3 |
6% |
168 |
14% |
108 |
1% |
105 |
-6% |
|
Dec-17 |
115.4 |
17% |
152 |
29% |
99 |
13% |
74 |
-16% |
|
Jan-18 |
132.1 |
20% |
161 |
33% |
121 |
11% |
91 |
13% |
|
Feb-18 |
120.3 |
13% |
148 |
13% |
111 |
14% |
74 |
11% |
|
Mar-18 |
120.4 |
0% |
146 |
5% |
110 |
1% |
87 |
-18% |
Note: *, underlying projects are valued over £250,000 and under £100 million
r – Revised, p – Provisional. Percentage change is against the same period of previous year.
Source: Glenigan
Note on the statistics
The Glenigan Index of project starts provides a leading indicator of construction activity in the UK. It is based on data collected about every construction project which started on site during the previous three-month period. The Index covers civil engineering and non-residential projects over £250,000 and residential projects for 10 or more units. It excludes any project over £100 million.