East Midlands

East Midlands – Overview

Project-starts performed particularly poorly in the East Midlands during Q4 2022. While main contract awards and detailed planning approvals both fell during the quarter, the value increased against the previous year to boost the development pipeline.

Adding up to £928m, work starting on-site in the East Midlands during Q4 2022 fell by more than half (-52%) against the preceding quarter to stand 16 per cent down on a year ago. A total absence of any major (£100m or more in value) projects commencing on-site contributed to the decline. Underlying (less than £100m) project-starts fell 33 per cent against the preceding quarter on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis and 16 per cent compared with a year ago.

Main contract awards in the East Midlands fell by a fifth during the quarter to total £1.65bn. Despite this, main contract awards were 7 per cent up on the previous year. Underlying contract awards, at £1.54bn, increased 2 per cent (SA) on the preceding quarter and remained unchanged on the previous year. Major project contract awards totalled £111m, a 76 per cent fall on the preceding quarter but growth against the previous year when no major projects reached the contract awarded stage.

Totalling £1.9bn, detailed planning approvals fell 5 per cent against the preceding quarter but increased 2 per cent compared with the previous year. Underlying detailed planning approvals, adding up to £1.8bn, fell 28 per cent (SA) against the preceding quarter but increased 3 per cent on the previous year. A single £111m major project was granted detailed planning consent during the quarter. This was growth against the preceding quarter, when no major projects were approved, but was an 8 per cent fall against the previous year.

Sector Analysis – Project-Starts

Private housing accounted for more than half (60 per cent) of work starting on-site in the East Midlands during Q4 2022 with the value adding up to £554m. This was 24 per cent growth compared with a year ago, being boosted by the commencement of a £47.5m, 200 residential unit development in Stamford (Project ID: 17075726). Albeit accounting for a much smaller proportion of project-starts (8 per cent), education experienced a good period with the value increasing 163 per cent compared with a year ago to total £78m. Projects commencing on-site included a £12m training centre in Newark (Project ID: 21538666).

Industrial accounted for the second-greatest share of project-starts (15 per cent) in the region, with the value adding up to £144m. However, the sector experienced a 59 per cent decline compared with a year ago. This was the third-largest decline of any sector during the three months to November after hotel & leisure (-81 per cent) and social housing (-66 per cent).

Value of project starts in the East Midlands during the Q4 2022 by sector

Sector Analysis – Detailed Planning Approvals

Private housing also enjoyed a strong period for detailed planning approvals during Q4 2022, with the value in the East Midlands increasing 36 per cent compared with a year ago to total £979m. Approvals were boosted by several schemes including a £40m, 335 house and 15 flat development in Northampton (Project ID: 21288212). Industrial, a typically active sector within the East Midlands, experienced 79 per cent growth in detailed planning approvals compared with a year ago total £647m. The sector accounted for a third of the total value during the three-month period and was boosted by the approval of a £71m industrial building in Corby (Project ID: 22280192).

All other sectors accounted for relatively small proportions of detailed planning approvals and all experienced declines against the previous year. Social housing (-79 per cent) and offices (-77 per cent) suffered particularly sharp falls compared with the previous year to total £82m and £14m respectively.

Value of detailed planning approvals in the East Midlands during Q4 2022 by sector

Forecast Construction-Starts for the East Midlands

Note: Underlying projects are schemes with a construction value of £250,000 to £100 million.  Forecast updated in October 2022 p – provisional, f – forecast.
Source: Glenigan